The results of the 14th Global Barometer survey released by exhibition industry association UFI make for bittersweet reading, providing positive perspectives for 2015 and at the same time displaying an acceptance that the industry is still on the mend. The survey, conducted in December 2014, was answered by 203 companies from 55 countries.
While fewer than one company in two claimed an increase of annual profit of more than 10 per cent for 2014, and the minority, at 41 per cent, of respondents consider the economic crisis to be over, the overall situation appears positive with a majority of companies from all regions declaring an increase of their turnover since at least 2011.
Detailed results for several key national markets indicate a general positive outlook on all issues for 2014 and 2015 for both the USA and China, with a small slowdown in turnover increase anticipated in China for 2015. Significant differences appear in Europe, with turnover increases expected in 2015 varying from two companies out of three in Turkey or Italy, to one in two in Germany and only one in 10 in Russia.
As to the most important business issues, these continue to revolve around the general economic situation with the state of the national/regional economy and global economic uncertainty consistently selected among the three most important business issues for the last four years.
A variation of local competition and internal management challenges complete the trio. Environmental challenges such as customer expectations and regulations appear to be next most important issue for respondents.
With the continued hardship impacting on existing business, most companies surveyed are now planning new business developments. Three-quarters are planning new activities in either the classic range of exhibition activities (venue/organiser/services) or in live or virtual events (or both), while 51 per cent plan to expand exhibition operations to new countries.
Commenting on the results, UFI managing director Paul Woodward concludes that: “In a globally fragile economic environment, the exhibition industry continues to demonstrate a fairly good performance, except in some countries with specific current issues. UFI encourages all surveyed companies to keep providing their input in order to maintain this important tool for the industry and its stakeholders.”
UFI has regularly assessed the impact of the economic downturn since 2009 by developing this ‘Crisis Barometer’, a business tool, based on the perceptions of UFI members in 84 countries and including, for the USA, an identical survey conducted by SISO (Society of Independent Show Organizers).
Since its inception the scope of the survey has been broadened to include members of Asociacion International de Ferias de America (AFIDA) in Central and South America and of Exhibition and Events Association of Southern Africa (EXSA).
Turnover
Turnover increase around the world varies according to region, and this year the barometer displays different regional increases, year-on-year.
An average of six companies out of 10 for 2014 and eight for 2015 declare an increase in turnover in the Americas. The USA outperformed the regional results in 2014, whereas Central and South America faced a significant drop during the second half of 2014.
In the Asia/Pacific region 70 per cent of companies noted turnover increases, however the news in China is less than promising, with an anticipated slowdown in 2015 the result of a decrease from 88 per cent for 2014 to 70 per cent for 2015.
An average of six companies in 10 declare increases in Europe. However, given the highly varied European exhibition marketplace, the situation differs greatly between countries and a slowdown is expected in several key markets in 2015, from 86 per cent in 2014 to 71 per cent in 2015 in Turkey, and a predictable drop from 43 per cent to 11 per cent in Russia.
The situation appears stable in Germany with half of the respondents declaring an increase for 2014 or 2015.
Eight companies out of 10 for 2014 and nine for 2015 declare increases in the Middle East and Africa, with South Africa outperforming these already high average regional results.
When it comes to operating profits, fewer than half of respondent in all regions declare an increase of more than 10 per cent in annual profits for 2014, nearly one out of two in both the Middle East & Africa and the Americas; four out of 10 in Asia/Pacific and three out of 10 in Europe.
Feeling the pinch
These findings apply to the major national markets where a large number of answers were received (54 per cent in South Africa, 50 per cent in the USA, 44 per cent for China) except in Europe where significant differences are noted (14 per cent in Russia and Italy, but 50 per cent in Germany and Turkey).
A large proportion of companies claim stable or increasing results in terms of operating profits: 78 per cent in the Americas; 81 per cent in Europe; 87 per cent in Asia/Pacific and 90 per cent in the Middle East/Africa.
Is the impact of the crisis over? Well, yes according to our USA and Chinese friends, where 69 and 58 per cent of respondents say so. But in the rest of the world, the yes voters are in the overall minority. Just 13 per cent believe this is the case in Russia, 29 per cent in Italy where austerity measures are still very much in effect, and rather more surprisingly 38 per cent of exhibition companies in Turkey, which has seen a remarkable influx of business post-2008.
While there are apparent winners and losers all around the world, with one region’s gain being met by another’s loss, the residual effect of the global financial crisis seems to be dwindling.
This article was first published in issue 1/4 of EW 2015. Any comments? Email Rebecca Shahoud
